Viewing archive of Friday, 10 September 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 10 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was
spotless. An area of enhanced plage and surging was observed on the
east limb near S20.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to
be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels for the next three
days (11 - 13 September) due to a sequence of small, recurrent
coronal holes that are forecasted to become geoeffective. Isolated
active periods are possible on 12 - 13 September.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Sep 076 Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 076/077/078 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 006/007-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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