Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 November 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Nov 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Old region 1112 (S19, L=208)
produced two C-class flares, the largest a C4.9 observed at
03/1221Z. A Type II radio sweep, with an estimated velocity of 837
km/s, and an east limb CME were associated with this event. Region
1120 (N39E17) has shown slight decay during the period. A filament
disappeared at 02/2337Z near S64E31.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class events for the next three days
(04-06 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (04-06
November).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Nov 079 Predicted 04 Nov-06 Nov 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 03 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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