Viewing archive of Tuesday, 28 December 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Dec 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1138 (N13W26)
developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration during the period, but
the region remained quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels for the next three days (29 - 31
December). A slight chance for C-class activity exists from Region
1138.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels during
the period. At approximately 28/0930Z, effects from the 23 December
CME impacted Earths magnetic field. Observations from the ACE
spacecraft indicated a sharp decrease in the Bz component of the IMF
(-13nT at 28/1401Z) while the Bt component reached a maximum value
of 14nT at 28/1315Z. The field responded with an isolated minor
storm period from 28/1200 - 1500Z at all latitudes. Thereafter,
storm conditions diminished to unsettled to active levels through
the end of the summary period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one of the
forecast period (29 December) and mostly quiet for days two and
three (30 - 31 December).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Dec 081 Predicted 29 Dec-31 Dec 082/084/084 90 Day Mean 28 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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