Viewing archive of Monday, 29 November 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Nov 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
Region 1130 (N13W14) has grown slightly and is a Dai-Beta type spot
group. A filament disappeared near N19W10. The eruption was
visible on SDO/AIA 193 at approximately 29/0100 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for isolated C-class events for the next three
days (30 Nov-02 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for
isolated active periods for days one and two (30 Nov-01 Dec) due to
a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected for day three (02 Dec) as the effects from the coronal
hole high-speed stream subside.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Nov 083 Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 083/083/083 90 Day Mean 29 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 007/007-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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