Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 November 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Nov 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. New Regions 1129 (S25W76) a Bxo-Beta type spot group and Region 1130 (N13E00), a Csi-Beta type spot group, were numbered today. Region 1130 produced a B2 x-ray event at 28/1754Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance of isolated C-class events from Region 1130 for the next three days (29 November - 01 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated solar wind speeds reached approximately 500 km/s during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated active periods during the next three days (29 November-01 December). The activity is forecast due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Nov 080
  Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        28 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  005/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Nov  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  006/007-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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