Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 November 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Nov 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 1127 (N24W71)
was quiet and stable. Region 1128 (S14E35) has decayed to spotless
plage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (28-30 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Observations at the
ACE satellite indicated the onset of recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream. Wind speeds reached approximately 450 km/s during the
period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached moderate levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with a slight chance
for an isolated active period on day one (28 November). The increase
is forecast due to elevated solar wind speed from a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream. Observations from the Behind
satellite indicate the enhanced wind speeds should subside during
day one. Days two and three (29-30) November are expected to be
quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Nov 077 Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 077/077/078 90 Day Mean 27 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 000/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 003/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 007/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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