Viewing archive of Monday, 1 November 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Nov 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was low. A C1 flare was observed at
01/0443Z from Region 1117 (N22, L=063) as it rotated around the west
limb. Region 1120 (N39E41) has been quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low on day one (02 November). Very low conditions are
expected on days two and three (03 - 04 November) as Region 1117
rotates off the solar disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a slight chance
for active conditions during the next three days (02 - 04 November).
The increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Nov 079 Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 01 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 007/008-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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