Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 September 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 05 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Regions 1101 (N13W88) and
1105 (N19W52) produced several B-class events during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be low
for the next 3 days (6-8 September) with a chance for C-class
events and a slight chance for M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to range from quiet to active conditions for days 1-2
(06-07 September). Conditions are forecast to return to quiet
conditions on day 3 (08 September).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 082 Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 05 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 000/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 001/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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