Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 September 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 04 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Regions 1105 (N18W36) and
1101 (N12W70) produced several B-class x-ray events during the
period. The largest event, an impulsive B6 flare, occurred at
04/07Z. A filament was observed on SDO AIA 193 lifting from the
north west quadrant at 04/1430Z. A limb event CME was visible in
SOHO LASCO C3 shortly after with an estimated speed of 368 km/s. The
same event was visible on the STEREO-A coronagraph and produced a
partial halo in the southeast quadrant.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be low
with C-class flares likely for the next 3 days (5-7 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be quiet to unsettled with the chance for active
conditions for the next 3 days (5-7 September) due to recurrent
coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Sep 082 Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 084/084/082 90 Day Mean 04 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 001/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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