Viewing archive of Friday, 3 September 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 03 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1105 (N18W22)
produced the only x-ray event of the period, a B1.8 flare at
03/1438Z. The three other regions on the disk remained quiet and
stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be very
low with the chance for an isolated C-class flare for the next 3
days (4-6 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly quiet on day 1 (4 September), and quiet to
active on days 2 and 3 (5-6 September) due to recurrent coronal hole
effects.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 077 Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 078/078/076 90 Day Mean 03 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 005/005-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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