Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 September 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 02 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. Region 1105 (N19W09) was numbered today but
remains quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be very
low for the next 3 days (3-5 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with a brief period of
unsettled conditions overnight. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly quiet on days 1 and 2 (3-4 September). Quiet
to unsettled with the chance for isolated active conditions are
forecast on day 3 (5 September) due to possible recurrent effects.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 077 Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 078/078/076 90 Day Mean 02 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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