Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 September 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 29 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1110 (N19W45) produced
a C2/Sf flare at 28/2211Z. This region is a D-type group with a
beta magnetic configuration. Region 1109 (N22W24) remains an E-type
group with a beta magnetic configuration. New Region 1111 (N23E55)
was numbered today. The 10cm solar flux has shown a slight rise in
background levels for 29 September.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a C-class event likely.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (30
September - 02 October).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 091 Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 084/083/083 90 Day Mean 29 Sep 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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