Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 October 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1117 (N21W15) produced
two C-class flares during the past 24 hours, the largest a C2.5
x-ray event at 25/2212Z. A CME (estimated plane-of-sky velocity 375
km/s) was observed off the southwest limb, first viewed on GOES-15
SXI imagery at approximately 26/0300Z. This CME was likely
associated with a B6.5 x-ray event at 26/0311Z from Region 1115
(S31W75). The CME appeared to be earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominately very low with a chance for C-class events and a slight
chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 1117.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels for the past
24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (27 - 28 October).
Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, are
expected on day three (29 October) in response to the CME observed
on 26 October.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Oct 086 Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 084/084/084 90 Day Mean 26 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 007/007-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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