Viewing archive of Tuesday, 28 September 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 28 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1110 (N20W31) produced
a C1 event at 28/0948Z. Region 1109 (N22W11) has decreased in both
areal coverage and sunspot count, but retains its E-type
classification and beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days
(29 September - 01 October).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Sep 083 Predicted 29 Sep-01 Oct 084/083/083 90 Day Mean 28 Sep 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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