Viewing archive of Monday, 27 September 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 27 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1109 (N22E02) has
grown slightly in white light areal coverage and remains an E-type
group with a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for a C-class flare from Region 1109.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Observations
from the ACE spacecraft during the period show solar wind speeds
ranging between 450-500 km/s and the IMF Bz between +5/-5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled
periods for the next three days (28-30 September).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Sep 083 Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 084/084/083 90 Day Mean 27 Sep 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 007/007-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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