Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 October 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1117 (N22E12)
produced several B-class flares during the past 24 hours. New Region
1119 (N22W22) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance of C-class flares from Region 1117 or
Region 1115 (S29W52) on days 1-3 (25 - 27 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was mostly unsettled to active due to the
effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind
speeds observed at the ACE spacecraft were at or above 600 km/s for
most of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly unsettled levels on days one and two (25 -
26 October) due to coronal hole effects. Day three (27 October) will
see quiet to unsettled levels as the coronal hole effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 082 Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 084/082/080 90 Day Mean 24 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 016/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 012/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 012/015-010/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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