Viewing archive of Monday, 6 September 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 06 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 1105 (N19W64)
produced a C2/Sf flare at 06/1459Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. An isolated active
period occurred between 06/0300-0600Z. Solar wind, as measured at
the ACE spacecraft, indicated a 10 nT enhancement of the total field
with the Bz component reaching around -8 nT during the enhanced
activity interval. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit briefly reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the two days (07-08 September), and quiet
to unsettled on day three (09 September).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 080 Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 079/079/078 90 Day Mean 06 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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