Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 October 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 03 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Todays activity consisted
of three low-level B-class x-ray events: a B1 at 02/2337Z from
Region 1109 (N20W80), a B2 at 03/0438Z from Region 1110 (now behind
the west limb at N21), and a B1 at 03/1923Z from Region 1111
(N24E06). The disk was otherwise stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
generally very low, with a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
either of Region 1109 or 1111.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the first day (04 October). For the second
and third days (05-06 October), mostly quiet conditions with some
unsettled periods are expected with a slight chance for isolated
active periods. The increase is forecast because of possible effects
from a weak high speed solar wind stream from a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 080 Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 03 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 000/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 001/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 005/005-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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