Viewing archive of Monday, 4 October 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1109 (N21W93) produced
a C2/1f event at 04/1635Z as it continues its rotation around the
west limb of the Sun.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet with isolated unsettled
conditions for days one and two (05-06 October). Any increase in
activity is expected due to a possible weak coronal hole high speed
stream. Day three (07 October) is expected to be at quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 076 Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 04 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 001/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 007/007-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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