Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 October 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 02 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Todays activity consisted
a single B5 x-ray event at 0851Z from Region 1109 (N21W65). Region
1109 continues to be the largest of the two spotted groups on the
disk but showed decay in the trailer spots and was generally quiet
and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
generally very low for the next three days (03-05 October).There is,
however, a chance for an isolated C-class event from Region 1109.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next two days (03-04 October). Quiet
levels should also prevail on the third day (05 October) but there
is a chance for some isolated unsettled intervals due to possible
effects from a weak high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 085 Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 082/080/080 90 Day Mean 02 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 000/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 001/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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