Viewing archive of Monday, 9 August 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Aug 09 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Two B1 flares were
observed during the period. New Region 1096 (N19W16) was numbered
and was classified as a Bxo spot group with a beta magnetic
configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there is a chance for a C-class flare from Region
1096.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an
isolated active period between 09/03-06Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (10 August)
due to the expected arrival of the CME observed on SOHO EIT on 07
August. This CME was associated with the M1/2f flare at 07/1824Z.
Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (11 August) due to
the expected arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
Quiet levels are expected on day three (12 August).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 083 Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 084/084/084 90 Day Mean 09 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 015/015-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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