Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 July 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jul 13 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Todays activity consisted of a C2/Sf flare at 13/1051Z from Region 1087 (N21E20). 1087 decreased in areal coverage and spot number during the past 24 hours and is currently classified as a Dso with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. A new region, 1088 (S21E12), was numbered today. 1088 is a simple Axx group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 1087.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods on days one and two (14-15 July) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet conditions are expected to return on day three (16 July).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jul 079
  Predicted   14 Jul-16 Jul  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        13 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul  002/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jul  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  010/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%05%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm06%02%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%30%05%
Minor storm20%10%01%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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