Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 July 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jul 13 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was low. Todays activity consisted of
a C2/Sf flare at 13/1051Z from Region 1087 (N21E20). 1087 decreased
in areal coverage and spot number during the past 24 hours and is
currently classified as a Dso with a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. A new region, 1088 (S21E12), was numbered today.
1088 is a simple Axx group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from
Region 1087.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods
on days one and two (14-15 July) due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream. Quiet conditions are expected to return on day
three (16 July).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jul 079 Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 13 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 010/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 06% | 02% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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