Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 July 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jul 14 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1087 (N20E08) produced two C-class events. The first was a C1 flare at 14/1230Z and the second was a C3 flare at 14/2047Z. 1087 is a Dso group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration and has shown little change in areal coverage and spot number during the last 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 1087.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The solar wind monitor on the ACE spacecraft indicated a sector boundary crossing into a positive sector at approximately 14/0900Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods on day one (15 July) due to a coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet conditions are expected to return on days two and three (16-17 July).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jul 078
  Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul  078/078/078
  90 Day Mean        14 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  001/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jul  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%05%05%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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