Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 June 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jun 17 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. New Region 1082 (N28E33) produced a B5/Sf x-ray event at 17/1023Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next 3 days (18-20 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with a few isolated periods of active conditions at mid latitudes. Solar wind speeds remain near 520 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is forecast to be quiet to unsettled with the chance for an isolated period of active conditions on day 1 (18 June). Conditions are forecast to be mostly quiet on days 2 and 3 (19-20 June).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Jun 070
  Predicted   18 Jun-20 Jun  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        17 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun  013/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Jun  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm20%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%30%30%
Minor storm30%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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