Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 June 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jun 29 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. A B1 level x-ray
event was observed at 29/0503Z. New Region 1085 (S23W24) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been predominately quiet with an isolated
unsettled period at 29/0900-1200Z. Observations from the ACE
satellite indicates the continuation of a high speed solar wind
stream, with winds speeds at about 540 km/s through out the period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on days one and two (30 June-01
July) with isolated minor storm levels at high latitudes. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on day three (02 July). The
increase in activity is forecast due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jun 074 Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 29 Jun 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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