Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 June 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jun 29 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. A B1 level x-ray event was observed at 29/0503Z. New Region 1085 (S23W24) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been predominately quiet with an isolated unsettled period at 29/0900-1200Z. Observations from the ACE satellite indicates the continuation of a high speed solar wind stream, with winds speeds at about 540 km/s through out the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on days one and two (30 June-01 July) with isolated minor storm levels at high latitudes. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (02 July). The increase in activity is forecast due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Jun 074
  Predicted   30 Jun-02 Jul  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        29 Jun 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Jun  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul  015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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