Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 June 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jun 30 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was very low during the last 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low throughout the forecast period (01-03 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active with an isolated minor storm at high latitudes observed from 00-03Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active periods for day 1 (01 July) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods are expected for days 2 and 3 (02-03 July) as the effects from the coronal hole high speed stream subside.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Jun 074
  Predicted   01 Jul-03 Jul  074/074/074
  90 Day Mean        30 Jun 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun  008/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Jun  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul  012/015-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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