Viewing archive of Monday, 26 July 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jul 26 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity remained very low. Region 1089 (S24W21) produced occasional B-class flares as it continued to gradually decay. Region 1090 (N22E29) and newly numbered Region 1091 (N12W73) were both simple, single-spot A-type groups.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low through the period. However, there is a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region 1089.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. Despite the quiet conditions, Earth remained within a recurrent coronal hole high-speed wind stream. ACE solar wind readings indicated velocities varied from 396 to 459 km/s during the period with no discernible trend.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to quiet to active levels with a slight chance for a minor storm on day 1 (27 July) as the current coronal hole high-speed stream intensifies. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels during days 2 - 3 (28 - 29 July) as the high-speed stream gradually subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Jul 084
  Predicted   27 Jul-29 Jul  084/084/084
  90 Day Mean        26 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jul  005/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul  012/015-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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