Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 July 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jul 25 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. A single low-level B-class flare occurred. Region 1089 (S24W08) continued a gradual decrease in area and spot number. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. However, there is a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region 1089.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to briefly unsettled levels. ACE solar wind readings indicated velocities gradually increased from 333 to 483 km/s during the period. The enhanced velocities were associated with a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (26 July). Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels with a slight chance for minor storm levels on day 2 (27 July) as the recurrent coronal hole high-speed wind stream intensifies. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day 3 (28 July) as coronal hole effects gradually subside.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Jul 085
  Predicted   26 Jul-28 Jul  084/084/082
  90 Day Mean        25 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jul  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul  008/010-012/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%15%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%20%
Minor storm05%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%

All times in UTC

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