Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 August 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Aug 21 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the period. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels until late on day three (24 August). Active to minor storm levels are expected late on day three due to a coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Aug 077
  Predicted   22 Aug-24 Aug  076/076/078
  90 Day Mean        21 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug  001/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Aug  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug  005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%20%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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