Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 August 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Aug 22 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. No flares were observed during the period and no new
regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels for the next three days (23-25 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day one (23 August), at quiet to
unsettled levels on day two,(24 August), and unsettled to active
levels with a chance for isolated minor storm periods on day three
(25 August). This increase in activity is due to the arrival of a
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Aug 075 Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 074/075/075 90 Day Mean 22 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 001/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 005/005-007/008-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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