Viewing archive of Friday, 17 September 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 17 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity ranged from very low to low. Region
1108 (S28E59) produced the largest event of the period, a C1/Sf at
17/0122Z. Additionally, Region 1108 and Region 1106 (S20W08)
produced several B-class events, along with numerous low frequency
radio activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance of moderate activity from Region 1108.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period observed at 17/0600Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet for the next three days (18 - 20
September).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Sep 082 Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 085/086/086 90 Day Mean 17 Sep 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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