Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 June 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jun 02 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1076 (S21W21) has grown in area, sunspot number, and is magnetically classified as a Beta.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class events for the next three days (03-05 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. The ACE spacecraft observations show the continued presence and of a coronal hole high-speed stream. Throughout the period, solar wind speeds have decreased from 550 km/s to 427 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active periods for the next three days (03 - 05 June). Activity on day one and day two (03-04 June) is due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. On day three (05 June), the expected geomagnetic activity is due to the arrival of the CME observed on May 31/2134Z.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jun to 05 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Jun 074
  Predicted   03 Jun-05 Jun  074/073/072
  90 Day Mean        02 Jun 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun  010/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Jun  006/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun  008/008-007/008-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun to 05 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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