Viewing archive of Friday, 4 November 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 04 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. No flares were recorded during the period. Regions 818 (S08W21) and 819 (S07W28) continue to decay with one sunspot visible in each region. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm conditions. A coronal hole high speed stream continues to be responsible for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Isolated periods of minor storm conditions are possible on 05 November, due to the coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to return on 06 November.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Nov 077
  Predicted   05 Nov-07 Nov  075/080/080
  90 Day Mean        04 Nov 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov  019/024
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Nov  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  015/020-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm20%15%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

All times in UTC

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