Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 December 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 01 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Region 826 (S02E22) continued to show explosive growth in both magnetic complexity and sunspot area. Magnetic analysis shows a strong east-west neutral line through the delta spot in the geometric center of the sunspot cluster. Region 826 produced multiple B and C-class flares during the period, the largest was a C6 x-ray flare occurring at 01/0837Z. Region 824 (S14W75) underwent little change since yesterday but did produce a C2 x-ray flare at 01/0238Z, which had an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 487 km/sec. Region 828 (S04E42) is a rapidly emerging DSO beta group that was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 826 has the potential to produce M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated conditions are due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. The solar wind speed has ranged between 650 and 750 km/sec throughout most of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active conditions on 02 December due to a favorability positioned coronal hole. Conditions should decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 03 and 04 December.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
Class M50%50%50%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Dec 098
  Predicted   02 Dec-04 Dec  100/105/105
  90 Day Mean        01 Dec 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Dec  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec  012/015-010/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

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