Viewing archive of Friday, 2 December 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 02 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels today. Region 826 (S02E09) continues to show strong growth in magnetic complexity and sunspot area. Magnetic analysis shows a strong east-west neutral line through the delta spot in the geometric center of the sunspot cluster. Sunspot area more than doubled since yesterday and measures 490 millionths in white light analysis. Region 826 produced two major flares during the period, the largest was an M7/1n flare that occurred at 02/1012Z, and had an associated Tenflare (490 sfu), and a Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 824 km/sec. There was a very faint partial halo CME following this flare, which was first seen on LASCO imagery at 02/1054Z. The second major flare today was an M6 x-ray event occurring at 02/0252Z which had an associated Tenflare (460 sfu). Regions 829 (N11E02) and 830 (N14E78) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 826 is expected to continue to produce major flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. An isolated minor storm period was observed at the Boulder magnetometer between 01/2100 and 2400Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels throughout the period. The high speed coronal hole stream is expected to move out of geoeffective position on 03 December. A weak transient passage from the partial halo CME that occurred today, may lead to isolated minor storm conditions late on 04 or early on 05 December.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
Class M60%60%60%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Dec 106
  Predicted   03 Dec-05 Dec  110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        02 Dec 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  012/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Dec  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  010/015-010/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%30%
Minor storm15%10%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%10%

All times in UTC

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