Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 November 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 05 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. New Region 820
(S16W27) produced three B-class x-ray flares. This rapidly-emerging
region depicts a relatively simple beta magnetic structure.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
periods of active conditions are possible on 06 November, due to a
favorably-positioned coronal hole, which should move out of
geoeffective position late in the day.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 079 Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 05 Nov 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 016/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 012/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 008/012-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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