Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 December 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 28 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels today. Region 843 produced the largest flare of the period, a B9 x-ray flare which occurred at 28/1125Z. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. A recurrent trans-equatorial high speed coronal hole stream was responsible for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels with isolated minor storm periods possible through 29 December. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 30 and 31 December as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Dec 089
  Predicted   29 Dec-31 Dec  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        28 Dec 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec  010/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Dec  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec  012/020-008/015-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%25%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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