Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 January 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jan 24 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 848
(S19W41) produced multiple B and C-class flares today, the largest
was a C3 x-ray flare occurring at 24/2217Z. This regions sunspot
area increased during the period and magnetic analysis continues to
show weak gamma characteristics. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 848 remains capable of producing C-class flare
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated
conditions are due to a favorably positioned high speed coronal hole
stream, which has been waning over the later part of the period.
Wind speed was nearing 400 km/sec at the time of this writing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jan 093 Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 24 Jan 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 013/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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