Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 December 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 27 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Most spotted regions showed some decay during the period with no significant solar activity reported. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A recurrent high speed trans-equatorial coronal hole stream became geoeffective late in the period. The solar wind speed increased from near 300 km/sec in the early part of the period to greater than 600 km/sec at the time of this writing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels with isolated minor storming periods possible, due to coronal hole effects. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 30 December as the high speed stream wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Dec 092
  Predicted   28 Dec-30 Dec  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        27 Dec 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Dec  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec  015/020-012/020-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%45%35%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm15%15%10%

All times in UTC

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