Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 November 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 03 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels again today. Region 819 (S09W14) was the source for two B-class events including a B9 x-ray flare that occurred at 03/0446Z. This region is down to a single AXX alpha spot. Region 818 (S08W08) became magnetically more complex although there are fewer sunspots visible than were observed yesterday. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. A high speed coronal hole stream is responsible for the elevated conditions. The solar wind speed has exceeded 600 km/sec throughout most of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. The geoeffective coronal hole could lead to periods of isolated minor storm conditions on 03 and 04 November. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 05 November.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Nov 077
  Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov  075/075/080
  90 Day Mean        03 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Nov  017/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  020/020-015/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

All times in UTC

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