Viewing archive of Friday, 7 October 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Oct 07 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 813 (S08W08) continues to show slow decay in sunspot coverage. The magnetic gamma structure in Region 813 is weak, but remains intact. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Region 813 remains capable of producing an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 08 October. Mostly active to isolated minor storm conditions may be possible on 09 and 10 October due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Oct 079
  Predicted   08 Oct-10 Oct  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        07 Oct 089
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Oct  004/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct  005/010-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%35%25%
Minor storm01%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%35%35%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

All times in UTC

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