Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 October 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Oct 08 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 813 (S08W22) underwent further decay in sunspot area and magnetic complexity. This region is now showing simple magnetic beta characteristics. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled to active conditions. The elevated levels are due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. The solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft increased from 400 km/sec at the beginning of the period to over 650 km/sec by 08/0600Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through the first two days of the period (09 and 10 October). A chance for isolated minor storming may be possible on 09 October. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 11 October as the coronal hole wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Oct 078
  Predicted   09 Oct-11 Oct  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        08 Oct 089
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct  011/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Oct  016/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct  015/020-012/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%35%20%
Minor storm20%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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