Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 June 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 621 (S14W01) contains minor magnetic mixing, but produced only small B-class activity. This period was actually highlighted by a number of CMEs, predominately off the west limb. The first of these occurred at around 02/2300Z from behind the northwest limb. An associated Type II radio sweep was observed with a shock speed of 658 km/s. Bright surging was observed on the west limb at 0830Z, which preceded another CME observed on LASCO imagery at 0950Z. The most impressive event of the period was a partial halo CME associated with a prominence eruption that began at around 03/1620Z. A Type II radio sweep (717 km/s) accompanied this CME. Much of the ejecta associated with this CME appeared to originate from behind the northwest limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Very low levels are expected through 4 June. C-class activity is possible on 5 and 6 June with the return of old active regions.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains elevated near 500 km/s, but IMF Bz was predominantly northward. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. There is a chance for isolated active periods at high latitudes through 4 June. The current weak coronal hole high speed stream is expected to subside by 5 June.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
Class M05%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Jun 090
  Predicted   04 Jun-06 Jun  090/095/095
  90 Day Mean        03 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Jun  009/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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