Viewing archive of Friday, 7 May 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 605 (S12W45) produced a C1/Sf flare at 07/1403Z. A rather faint CME was visible on LASCO imagery following this flare. Region 605 continues to gradually decay and now exists as a simple alpha spot group. New Region 606 (S09E81) rotated into view on the east limb during this period. Limb proximity makes it difficult to accurately assess true size and complexity; however, a CME was observed to erupt from this location at 07/1050Z. An associated Type II radio sweep (739 km/s) also occurred. No other significant activity was noted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. New Region 606 possesses the best potential for C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The high speed coronal hole stream that became geoeffective on 05 May continues to buffet the geomagnetic field. Frequent southward IMF Bz oscillations over the last 24 hours are responsible for the most disturbed periods. The high speed stream does appear to be subsiding: solar wind speed decreased to below 500 km/s late in the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. Isolated active periods are possible early on 08 May as the coronal hole high speed stream subsides. Weak transient material from today's C1 flare and CME may produce occasional unsettled to active periods on 10 May.
III. Event Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 May 085
  Predicted   08 May-10 May  085/090/095
  90 Day Mean        07 May 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  010/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 May  015/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  008/008-005/008-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%30%
Minor storm10%05%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%

All times in UTC

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