Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 June 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was low. A single C1/Sf flare occurred
in Region 640 (S07E41) at 30/1439Z. Region 640 is a small simple
beta group in decay. Occasional B-class flares occurred in Region
639 (N13E46). This region also exhibited some decay this period. A
long duration B-class x-ray enhancement was associated with plage
brightenings near an active dark filament at S06W06.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. An isolated C-class flare is possible from Regions 639
and 640.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. A coronal hole high speed stream that began on 28 June is
responsible for this weak disturbance. Solar wind speed ranged from
520 to 580 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jun 082 Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 080/080/085 90 Day Mean 30 Jun 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 015/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 012/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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