Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 June 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A single C1/Sf flare occurred in Region 640 (S07E41) at 30/1439Z. Region 640 is a small simple beta group in decay. Occasional B-class flares occurred in Region 639 (N13E46). This region also exhibited some decay this period. A long duration B-class x-ray enhancement was associated with plage brightenings near an active dark filament at S06W06.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to very low. An isolated C-class flare is possible from Regions 639 and 640.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. A coronal hole high speed stream that began on 28 June is responsible for this weak disturbance. Solar wind speed ranged from 520 to 580 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Jun 082
  Predicted   01 Jul-03 Jul  080/080/085
  90 Day Mean        30 Jun 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun  015/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Jun  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul  012/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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