Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 July 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jul 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Just two small decaying
sunspot groups populate the visible disk. No significant activity
was observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with occasional active
periods. This weak disturbance is due to a high speed coronal hole
stream. The solar wind speed remains elevated at over 500 km/s, but
is in decline. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible on 02 - 03 July as the high speed coronal hole stream
subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jul 081 Predicted 02 Jul-04 Jul 080/085/085 90 Day Mean 01 Jul 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 010/012-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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