Viewing archive of Friday, 4 June 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 621 (S14W15) now
exhibits a simple beta magnetic configuration and is in a decay
phase. The remaining active regions were stable or in decay. Another
in a series of strong CMEs occurred from behind the northwest limb.
This near full halo CME was first visible on LASCO C2 at 04/0750Z. A
Type II radio sweep (700 km/s) was also associated with this CME.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
continues to gradually decrease as a coronal hole rotates out of a
geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
| Class M | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jun 089 Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 090/095/095 90 Day Mean 04 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 005/008-005/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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