Viewing archive of Friday, 4 June 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 621 (S14W15) now exhibits a simple beta magnetic configuration and is in a decay phase. The remaining active regions were stable or in decay. Another in a series of strong CMEs occurred from behind the northwest limb. This near full halo CME was first visible on LASCO C2 at 04/0750Z. A Type II radio sweep (700 km/s) was also associated with this CME.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed continues to gradually decrease as a coronal hole rotates out of a geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
Class M05%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jun 089
  Predicted   05 Jun-07 Jun  090/095/095
  90 Day Mean        04 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jun  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  005/008-005/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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