Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 June 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 621
(S14W28) became more simplified during the period with a continued
decay in the sunspot area and further weakening of the regions beta
magnetic configuration. Although Region 625 (S12W82) is now
spotless, it managed to produce a minor B-class flare at 05/0604Z.
Regions 626 (N05W06) and 627 (S08E30) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jun 085 Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 085/080/085 90 Day Mean 05 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 014/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 005/008-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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