Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 June 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Several B-class flares
occurred in Region 639 (N13E46). Some minor magnetic mixing is
evident in this growing region. No significant changes were observed
in the remaining active regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a small chance for a C-class flare from
Region 639.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. The disturbed periods
are due to a coronal hole high speed stream that began yesterday and
peaked at near 600 km/s midway through the period. The IMF Bz
component was mostly northward, but switched southward towards the
end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with occasional active
periods. The current weak disturbance is expected to subside by 1
July.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jun 085 Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 29 Jun 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 011/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 018/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 012/020-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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