Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 June 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 621 (S14E12) contains a mildly complex beta-gamma magnetic configuration; however, activity was limited to occasional low B-class flares. A CME was observed to erupt from near the northwest limb late in the period. Preliminary data indicate no Earth directed component. The remaining active regions showed no significant change.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region 621.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed remains elevated due to a large transequatorial coronal hole that has rotated into a geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. The elevated solar wind speed is expected to subside by 04 June. Expect quiet to unsettled levels by 05 June.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jun to 05 Jun
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Jun 090
  Predicted   03 Jun-05 Jun  090/095/095
  90 Day Mean        02 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun  014/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Jun  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun  015/018-008/015-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun to 05 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%30%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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